ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 051635 
SPC MCD 051635 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-052130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0077
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CST WED FEB 05 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NY...MUCH OF VT/NH...NWRN MA AND WRN ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 051635Z - 052130Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER WRN...CENTRAL INTO ERN/NRN NY THROUGH 18Z WITHIN W-E
ORIENTED BANDS.  GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM...THESE BANDS
WILL PERSIST AND ADVANCE EWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES THAT DEVELOP YET THIS MORNING
OVER WRN NY MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY 18-19Z WEST OF A LINE FROM
KSYR-KELM AND POSSIBLY AROUND KBGM AS A DRY SLOT ADVANCES INTO THIS
REGION.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY THROUGH THE MID
MORNING SHOWED W-E BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AREA 30-40
MILES WIDE FROM FAR WRN TO EAST CENTRAL NY...AND GENERALLY CENTERED
ON A LINE FROM LIVINGSTON TO RENSSELAER COUNTIES.  THESE BANDS
APPEAR TO BE CO-LOCATED FAIRLY WELL WITH A W-E ZONE OF 850 MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.  MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL BANDS WERE DEVELOPING
FARTHER N OVER ERN LAKE ONTARIO TO NRN NY AND MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT 700 MB. FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A SRN QUEBEC 200+ 250 MB JET
JUXTAPOSED ACROSS THIS REGION...AND AS ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF
A STRENGTHENING 500 MB JET ADVANCES EWD FROM NY TO NRN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NERN STATES
TODAY...COOLING 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES IN THE
3-6 KM LAYER PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT
WITHIN THE SNOW BANDS...WITH LIGHTNING RECENTLY DETECTED NEAR KBUF. 
STRONG UVVS EXPECTED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ATOP A DEEP
ISOTHERMAL LAYER INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER SNOWFALL RATES.

..PETERS.. 02/05/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   42907818 43147666 43297586 43527577 43807587 44407557
            44627516 44847411 44887321 44797201 44777190 44987089
            44897045 44527011 44127019 43557066 43127102 42807146
            42627248 42237423 42067546 42087687 42027744 42027806
            42207837 42427849 42907818 

NNNN