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Mesoscale Discussion 85
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0085
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL-NERN SC AND SERN NC

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 112010Z - 120115Z

   SUMMARY...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN NC...TO NEAR THE NC COAST FROM SERN
   CRAVEN/CARTERET COUNTIES TO KILM WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AT
   32 F.  A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
   SLEET OR SNOW...IS FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NERN
   SC AND POTENTIALLY PARTS OF CENTRAL SC THROUGH 22-00Z.  FREEZING
   RAIN RATES UP TO AROUND 0.05 INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...NELY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM
   CENTRAL/ERN NC INTO SC...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A SW-NE ORIENTED
   BOUNDARY LOCATED OFFSHORE THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
   EXTENDING SWD IN LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS.  THESE SURFACE
   TRAJECTORIES WILL MAINTAIN COLD ADVECTION SWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW 32 F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN
   SERN NC.  MEANWHILE...THE 32 F WET BULB TEMPERATURE EXTENDED FROM
   JUST NORTH OF NORTH MYRTLE BEACH SC WWD TO 20 S OF KFLO AND THEN
   NWWD TO 30 S CLT.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FURTHER SWD MOVEMENT OF THIS
   CRITICAL WET BULB TEMPERATURE CAN BE EXPECTED...SUCH THAT COOLING
   PROCESSES AS PRECIPITATION PERSISTS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AT OR BELOW 32 F THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
   PROCESS HAS OCCURRED AT KFLO WHICH AT 19Z REPORTED MODERATE FREEZING
   RAIN /0.05 INCH PER HOUR/.  THE 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING AT CHS
   INDICATED A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE /6.8 C AT 880 MB/.  THIS WARM
   LAYER ATOP SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR FALLING BELOW 32 F WILL
   SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP-TYPE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE 15Z SREF WHICH
   SUGGESTS RAIN COULD TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN FROM NRN GEORGETOWN
   COUNTY TO CALHOUN COUNTY BETWEEN 21-00Z.

   RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE BACK EDGE OF REFLECTIVITY WITH GREATER
   PRECIPITATION RATES PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WAS MOVING THROUGH
   CENTRAL SC AT 1930Z....WITH THIS BACK EDGE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
   NERN SC/SERN NC COAST AROUND 22-23Z.

   ..PETERS.. 02/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

   LAT...LON   34987691 34677657 34497726 33857801 33827849 33367927
               33528088 33918123 34208096 34578042 34787937 34907813
               35127739 34987691 

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