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Mesoscale Discussion 92
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0092
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0107 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 121907Z - 122100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL
   PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT
   A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
   ACROSS THE MCD AREA.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH IN THE MS VALLEY WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS
   THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SFC...A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT
   130 STATUTE MILES SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE FL WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED 40
   TO 55 KT LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET CO-LOCATED WITH THE SFC LOW. A
   SQUALL-LINE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE JET FEATURE AND IS
   MOVING TOWARD FL PENINSULA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F.
   THE LINE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA IN THE 21Z TO
   22Z TIMEFRAME. A FORWARD SPEED OF LINE 30 TO 35 KT ALONG WITH SOME
   INTENSIFICATION SHOULD RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IN WRN AND
   CNTRL FL THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ON
   THE LEADING EDGE ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. MORE ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL FL WHERE MODERATE
   INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F.
   THESE STORMS COULD ALSO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
   THE FORM OF WET DOWNBURSTS.

   ..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 02/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   28968120 28918232 28458297 27698292 27128268 26278210
               26018168 26008089 26268030 26747998 27218001 27758023
               28568058 28968120 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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