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Mesoscale Discussion 93
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CENTRAL GA/EXTREME NERN AL/EXTREME SERN
   TN/MUCH OF SC/SRN NC

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 122020Z - 130115Z

   SUMMARY...A WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING.  FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO 0.1-0.15 INCH/HOUR WILL
   PERSIST FROM THE SRN NC PIEDMONT SSWWD THROUGH THE WRN PART OF THE
   SC COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE A MORE NARROW CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN
   CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SWD IN CENTRAL PARTS OF GA /S OF AGS TO INVOF
   MCN/.  MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES TO AROUND 1 INCH/HOUR SHOULD
   DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN NC...UPSTATE SC AND NERN GA. 
   MEANWHILE...BETWEEN THESE TWO PRECIP-TYPES...A 70-80 MILE WIDE ZONE
   OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THE SC PIEDMONT WWD
   THROUGH CENTRAL TO NWRN GA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EXTREME NERN
   AL/SERN TN...WITH A SIMILAR TRANSITION INTO PART OF SRN NC NEAR AND
   E/SE OF CLT.

   DISCUSSION...A 40 KT SLY LLJ CURRENTLY EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL/NRN GA
   WILL STRENGTHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING TO 50+ KT FROM
   NRN FL TO SC AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY AND ERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDERGO PHASING INTO
   THE EVENING...AND TAKE ON A NEGATIVE-TILT.  REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
   SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL/NRN GA
   THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF WAA WITHIN THE NOSE OF
   THE LLJ AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
   MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

   A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE WAS OBSERVED IN THE 18Z SPECIAL CHS SOUNDING
   WITH THIS ELEVATED WARM LAYER HAVING DEEPENED SINCE 12Z.  THIS IS
   INDICATIVE OF THE STRENGTHENING WAA WITHIN THE LLJ DEVELOPING INTO
   THIS REGION...AND IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY
   FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE WRN SC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SRN NC
   PIEDMONT REGION.  FARTHER W...THE FFC 18Z SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED
   THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN...THOUGH THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WAS
   LESS PRONOUNCED THAN LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST.  THUS...RECENT SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NWRN AND CENTRAL GA INDICATED A MIX OF WINTRY
   PRECIPITATION...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THIS TREND WILL PERSIST
   THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE AS WELL INTO THE SC
   PIEDMONT.  IN ADDITION...TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS NRN GA
   INDICATED ONE OR MORE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITHIN AN
   APPARENT SW-NE ORIENTED ZONE OF 850-700 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT
   SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES.  MEANWHILE...VERTICAL
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW ACROSS THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN NC...FAR UPSTATE SC AND NERN GA WITHIN THE
   CURRENT NERN EXTENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
   RESULTANT EXPECTED INCREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES.

   ..PETERS.. 02/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...
   HUN...

   LAT...LON   35768294 35558234 35588171 35638107 35578060 35508021
               35537982 35337908 34957845 34007879 33347977 32928086
               32648223 32398333 32328406 32498449 32938511 33588544
               33958553 34498569 34988560 35278453 35638370 35768294 

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