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Mesoscale Discussion 102 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...NW/N-CNTRL NC...SRN/ERN VA...SRN MD
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 131843Z - 132345Z
SUMMARY...AN AREA OF MODERATE SNOWFALL CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WRN
VA AND WRN/CNTRL NC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD WHILE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL /WITH RATES IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH/HR/ IS EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL VA BETWEEN
18-21Z AND WRN VA/SRN MD BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.
DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT NEWD ACROSS THE
SERN QUADRANT OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...INDUCING A NEGATIVE TILT TO
THE UPPER LOW AND INCREASING ITS NEWD PROGRESSION. AS THIS
OCCURS...UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OFF NRN
MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
MID-LEVEL LIFT ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT OF THE OVERALL NEWD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND
INCREASED LIFT...AREA OF MODERATE SNOWFALL CURRENTLY ACROSS WRN VA
AND WRN/CNTRL NC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD WHILE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH/HR IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL VA BETWEEN
18-21Z AND WRN VA/SRN MD BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. ADDITIONALLY...SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICK ENOUGH ABOVE 700 MB
TO SUPPORT 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AOA 7 DEG C PER KM. RESULTANT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL.
..MOSIER.. 02/13/2014
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...
LAT...LON 37397599 36847658 36357806 35957912 35637991 35508053
35698139 35988173 36198171 36638169 37518117 38077896
38817781 39127667 38877534 38167544 37397599
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