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Mesoscale Discussion 102
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1243 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NW/N-CNTRL NC...SRN/ERN VA...SRN MD

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 131843Z - 132345Z

   SUMMARY...AN AREA OF MODERATE SNOWFALL CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WRN
   VA AND WRN/CNTRL NC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD WHILE INCREASING IN
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL /WITH RATES IN EXCESS
   OF 1 INCH/HR/ IS EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL VA BETWEEN
   18-21Z AND WRN VA/SRN MD BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.

   DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT NEWD ACROSS THE
   SERN QUADRANT OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...INDUCING A NEGATIVE TILT TO
   THE UPPER LOW AND INCREASING ITS NEWD PROGRESSION. AS THIS
   OCCURS...UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OFF NRN
   MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAPID
   DEEPENING OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
   MID-LEVEL LIFT ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING INTO
   TONIGHT.

   AS A RESULT OF THE OVERALL NEWD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND
   INCREASED LIFT...AREA OF MODERATE SNOWFALL CURRENTLY ACROSS WRN VA
   AND WRN/CNTRL NC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD WHILE INCREASING IN
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES IN EXCESS
   OF 1 INCH/HR IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL VA BETWEEN
   18-21Z AND WRN VA/SRN MD BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. ADDITIONALLY...SOME OF THE
   GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICK ENOUGH ABOVE 700 MB
   TO SUPPORT 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AOA 7 DEG C PER KM. RESULTANT
   ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
   ELEMENTS...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL.

   ..MOSIER.. 02/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   37397599 36847658 36357806 35957912 35637991 35508053
               35698139 35988173 36198171 36638169 37518117 38077896
               38817781 39127667 38877534 38167544 37397599 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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