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Mesoscale Discussion 104
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0104
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0807 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...VT...FAR NERN PA/NRN NJ/WRN MA

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 140207Z - 140800Z

   SUMMARY...MODERATE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY SNOW AS IT SHIFTS
   NWD AND BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
   SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL BECOME COMMON WITH RATES TO 3 IN/HR
   WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT COOLING IR CLOUD TOPS CHARACTERIZE THE STRONGLY
   FORCED ASCENT VIA DCVA AND FRONTOGENESIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
   VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST THAT WILL SHIFT
   N/NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. NUMEROUS OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES OF 0.10
   TO 0.30 IN/HR HAVE OCCURRED WITHIN THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST
   PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR ERN PA INTO WRN LONG ISLAND.
   ALTHOUGH THE 00Z OKX RAOB STILL SAMPLED A PRONOUNCED ABOVE-FREEZING
   WARM NOSE IN THE LOW-LEVELS /TO 7 DEG C NEAR 850 MB/...THE 00Z ALB
   RAOB REMAINED FULLY BELOW-FREEZING AND SATURATED THROUGH THE
   LOW-LEVELS. AS ROBUST ASCENT OVERSPREADS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR. WITH A DEEP
   NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND HIGH
   QPF...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR APPEAR QUITE LIKELY. MEAGER
   ELEVATED BUOYANCY /ROOTED BETWEEN 700-600 MB/ WILL PROMOTE SPORADIC
   LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SNOWFALL RATES TO 3 IN/HR AT TIMES.

   ..GRAMS.. 02/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   43227264 41667356 40847438 40527535 40777572 41057589
               41287584 43867457 44997415 44997172 43227264 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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