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Mesoscale Discussion 106
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0106
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0959 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN IL...CNTRL/SRN INDIANA...SWRN
   OH...NRN KY

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 141559Z - 142100Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES REACHING 1 INCH/HOUR WILL SPREAD EWD
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER
   GREAT LAKES REGION.

   DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE A BAND OF
   MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING ACROSS CNTRL IL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   SPREAD EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN INDIANA AFTER 17Z AND THEN ENTER PARTS
   OF SWRN OH AND NRN KY AROUND OR AFTER 20Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS
   COLOCATED WITH A ZONE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ASCENT THAT
   WILL ALSO SHIFT EWD IN TANDEM WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF 1002-MB SFC LOW
   PRESSURE ANALYZED W OF STL. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
   TROPOSPHERE AS SAMPLED BY 12Z ILX AND ILN RAOBS AND MODESTLY DEEP
   DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES CENTERED AROUND H6 WILL FOSTER EFFICIENT SNOW
   GROWTH ALONG WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 1 INCH PER HOUR. THE COLD
   THERMAL PROFILES WILL ALSO BOOST SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS...
   PARTICULARLY FROM CNTRL IL TO CNTRL INDIANA. ACROSS SRN-MOST PARTS
   OF THE MCD AREA -- I.E. CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER --- WEAK WARM
   ADVECTION PRECEDING THE SFC LOW COULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ELEVATED WARM
   NOSE LAYER AND A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MIXED PRECIP TYPES
   /SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW/.

   ..COHEN.. 02/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   40248914 40498824 39978517 39398425 38698444 38198667
               38168827 38468928 39218963 40248914 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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