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Mesoscale Discussion 116
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0116
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 200843Z - 201115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING
   EAST NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR OF SOUTH CENTRAL
   MISSOURI...INTO PARTS OF THE ST. LOUIS METRO AND AREAS TO THE
   SOUTHEAST BY 11-13Z.  SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
   QUESTION...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
   APPEARS LOW...AND THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...THE PERSISTENT ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS
   TO BE FOCUSED WHERE ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN ON THE SOUTHERLY 850 MB
   JET IS UNDER RUNNING STRONGER MID-LEVEL INHIBITION.  THIS IS ROUGHLY
   DELINEATED BY THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED 700 MB THERMAL GRADIENT
   EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR
   OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.  DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LOADED GUN TYPE
   SOUNDINGS...ABOVE THE RESIDUAL STABLE LAYER BASED AT THE
   SURFACE...THE TENDENCY FOR WARMING ALOFT WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD
   ADVANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...APPEARS TO BE
   SUPPRESSING CAPE...AND THE VIGOR OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
   WHILE THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT TO SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL INTENSIFY
   SUBSTANTIALLY AS THEY DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE ST.
   LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 11-13Z...ACTIVITY DOES
   APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST...AND SHEAR IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER APPEARS
   SUFFICIENT FOR PERSISTENT...ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES.  THIS MAY
   INCLUDE SUPERCELLS WITH SOME RISK FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL..AND GUST SURFACE WINDS.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 02/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38439353 38929047 37619006 37019147 36999328 37259412
               37879442 38439353 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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