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Mesoscale Discussion 117
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0117
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0424 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...ADJACENT SE NEB...NWRN INTO N CNTRL
   MO...AND ADJACENT SRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 201024Z - 201230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE NEED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENTLY INITIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ALONG THE
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM FRONTAL ZONE...AIDED BY FORCING IN THE
   LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING STRONG MID-LEVEL JET...IS
   CURRENTLY GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING.  ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY ROOTED
   ABOVE A FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE-BASED COLD/STABLE LAYER...BUT MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN ABOVE THE ELEVATED RETURN FLOW OF
   MOISTURE.  GIVEN THE LOADED GUN TYPE PROFILES WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE
   LAYER...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE IN
   THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   STRUCTURES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  HOWEVER...THE COLD NEAR SURFACE
   LAYER WILL AT LEAST HINDER THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS.
   AND IT IS NOT YET CLEAR THAT CAPE WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
   MUCH MORE THAN OCCASIONAL PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AS
   STRONGER STORMS TRACK NEAR/NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE KANSAS CITY
   METRO...TOWARD THE LAMONI IA/KIRKSVILLE MO AREAS BY 14-16Z.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 02/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39469737 39919613 40379536 40649473 40939367 40329301
               39709334 38979486 38699722 39469737 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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