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Mesoscale Discussion 118
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0118
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0528 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN NEB...ADJACENT WRN IA...SERN SD AND
   SWRN MN

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 201128Z - 201600Z

   SUMMARY...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE
   REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING.  SNOW RATES UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
   HOUR APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
   IOWA BY 14-16Z...ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
   SURFACE WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...AS A 90-100+ KT...CYCLONIC...500 MB JET STREAK
   CONTINUES TO NOSE ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH
   THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...MODELS INDICATE THAT A
   DEEPENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE WILL MIGRATE FROM SOUTH
   CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE KANSAS CITY AREA OF WEST CENTRAL
   MISSOURI.  THIS IS FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING
   FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN A ZONE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
   SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH 14-16Z.  ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO SATURATE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER AND
   CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFYING SNOW RATES...WHICH PROBABLY WILL BE
   ENHANCED BY CONVECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF .5 TO .7 INCHES.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
   OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR APPEAR POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG AN
   AXIS FROM LINCOLN NEB THRU SIOUX CITY IA...WHERE STRENGTHENING AND
   GUSTY NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE
   BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

   ..KERR.. 02/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

   LAT...LON   41049738 42859720 44929522 42439552 41109581 40249620
               40259737 41049738 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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