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Mesoscale Discussion 125
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0323 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO INTO W-CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 10...

   VALID 202123Z - 202300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 10
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG
   WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL CONTINUE ACROSS W-CNTRL IL
   THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF
   E-CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL IND. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E/NE
   ACROSS W-CNTRL IL THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS
   AREA IS ON THE FRINGES OF THE BETTER WARM SECTOR FURTHER TO THE
   SOUTH. LATEST OBS SHOW DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
   LOW 60S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
   MODEST MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG /WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED/ PER
   21Z MESOANALYSIS...WITH LOWER VALUES FARTHER EAST UNDER CLOUDY
   SKIES. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7-8 DEG C PER KM AND STRONG DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
   AS THE LINE MOVES E/NE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A NEW WW COULD
   BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS E-CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL IND. WHILE STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
   THAT AREA...THE QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IS POORER WITH
   DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

   ..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 02/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39179075 39489023 39738907 39888781 39808718 39448683
               39038671 38548716 38278896 37999026 38279066 38779083
               39179075 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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