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Mesoscale Discussion 126
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0529 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL KY/WRN AND MIDDLE TN/NRN MS/FAR
   SERN MO/NERN AR/NWRN AL/SRN IL/SRN AND CENTRAL IND

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 11...

   VALID 202329Z - 210015Z

   CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHIC TO EXTEND NWD INTO CENTRAL INDIANA

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 11 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 11...ALONG AND AHEAD OF
   THE COLD FRONT.  A NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED TO THE EAST OF WW 11
   AND WW 13 INTO MIDDLE TN...CENTRAL KY...AND SRN-CENTRAL IND.

   DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL
   TROUGH CONTINUING TO ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE FULL EXTENT OF THE MS
   VALLEY.  DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO FURTHER
   STRENGTHENING FROM AR TO THE TN/OH VALLEYS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES. 
   THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING
   ESEWD THROUGH SWRN KS TO NWRN OK PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MOVES
   INTO THE BASE OF THE ALREADY STRONG MS VALLEY LONGWAVE TROUGH.  THE
   COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THIS PARENT TROUGH EXTENDED FROM A 986 MB
   SURFACE LOW IN ERN IA SWD THROUGH WRN IL...SERN MO...TO CENTRAL AND
   SWRN AR.  

   ALTHOUGH A 20Z SPECIAL SOUNDING AT BNA SHOWED A CAP AT 700
   MB...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE STEEP /7-8 C PER KM/ WITH SUFFICIENT
   MOISTURE /PW AROUND 1 INCH/ FOR EVENTUAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.  A BAND
   OF STORMS DOES EXIST EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND EXTENDED FRO WRN KY
   /OHIO COUNTY/ SWWD INTO WRN TN AND NWRN MS.  ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
   STORM SIGNATURES HAVE TENDED TO BE LINEAR OR QUASI-LINEAR WITHIN
   THIS BAND...RADAR DATA SHOWED EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS IN THE LINE
   SEGMENTS.  ADDITIONAL BROKEN AND DISCRETE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG
   AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN SRN IL AND FAR SERN MO/NERN AR. 
   AREA WSR-88D VADS AND STRENGTHENING WINDS/SHEAR SUGGEST TORNADOES
   WILL REMAIN A THREAT INTO THE EVENING...AS THE PARENT TROUGH
   UNDERGOES FURTHER STRENGTHENING.  GIVEN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
   LOCATED ON THE ERN PART OF WW 11 /NRN MIDDLE TN AND SWRN KY/ AND
   EXPECTED FAVORABLE STORM ENVIRONMENT SPREADING EWD INTO THE TN/OH
   VALLEYS THIS EVENING...A NEW WW WILL BE CONSIDERED E OF WW 11 AND WW
   13.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 02/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...BMX...HUN...
   PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...LSX...

   LAT...LON   34149089 35409032 36309004 37159009 37909009 38298947
               38598831 38498697 38568679 39588672 40078659 40128488
               39898466 38378463 37668445 34998552 34968755 33688842
               33738916 33829031 34149089 

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