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Mesoscale Discussion 132
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0132
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0929 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...ERN TN...PARTS OF NRN GA...FAR SWRN VA/NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 210329Z - 210430Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW WW WILL BE COORDINATED WITH AFFECTED WFO/S FROM ERN
   KY...ERN TN INTO PARTS OF NRN GA...AND FAR SWRN VA/NC.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY THROUGH 0315Z SHOWED A
   WELL-DEFINED FAST MOVING /ENE AT 50 KT/ QLCS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH
   CENTRAL KY THROUGH MIDDLE TN /E OF BNA/ TO NWRN AL AND INTO ERN MS. 
   DESPITE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ERN EXTENT...THE
   STRENGTH OF THE PARENT MS VALLEY MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
   FURTHER INTENSIFIED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE BASE OF
   THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   INTO ERN KY...ERN TN...NRN GA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NC/VA.  THE
   STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE STRONG SURFACE
   PRESSURE RISES EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO E
   TX...ENHANCING THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE QLCS. 
   IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LOW LEVEL AND
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FURTHER SUPPORT EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES IN THE
   QLCS FOR A TORNADO THREAT TO PERSIST.  AREA VADS SHOW LOW LEVEL
   HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND SFC-1 KM SHEAR OF 35+ KT SUPPORTIVE OF THE
   TORNADO THREAT.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 02/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   37518440 37808378 37578290 36998297 35678322 34538395
               34098483 34108553 35138580 36818469 37518440 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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