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Mesoscale Discussion 136
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0136
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0121 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN AND CNTRL WV AND EXTREME NERN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 20...

   VALID 210721Z - 210815Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 20
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY PERSIST THROUGH 08Z OR
   0830Z...MAINLY ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL WV. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 08Z AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
   APPALACHIANS. ANOTHER WW EAST OF 20 IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH
   COUNTIES COULD BE ADDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO EXISTING WW TO COVER THE
   SHORT-TERM THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...TREND HAS BEEN FOR SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH WV TO
   DECREASE...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SURFACE ANALYSIS
   SHOWS A WARM/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM SWRN PA SWD THROUGH
   EXTREME ERN WV. WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY VERY LIMITED MUCAPE /AROUND
   300 J/KG/ AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY
   BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WARM
   SECTOR. ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND GIVEN 60-70 KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...STORMS
   SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 1-1.5 HOURS AS THEY CROSS
   INTO THE MORE STABLE REGIME EAST OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS EXTREME
   ERN WV.

   ..DIAL.. 02/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...

   LAT...LON   37868221 39348145 39248001 38138085 37248145 37868221 

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