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Mesoscale Discussion 143
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0143
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1116 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA...SRN NJ...FAR SERN PA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 24...

   VALID 211716Z - 211845Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 24 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...PRIMARY SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH PORTION
   OF QLCS EMANATING NEWD FROM SERN VA TOWARDS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
   AND PERHAPS SRN NJ. A NARROW WINDOW OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUST
   POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND INTO PARTS OF SERN PA. DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE N
   OF WW 24 IS POSSIBLE BY 18Z.

   DISCUSSION...LONGEST-LIVED/MOST INTENSE PORTION OF EXTENSIVE QLCS
   HAS EVOLVED INTO PARTS OF SERN VA. PRIMARY RISK SHOULD REMAIN
   DAMAGING WINDS BUT OCCASIONAL ROTATION HAS BEEN NOTED IN
   LEWP/SMALL-SCALE BOWING STRUCTURES. 30-40 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR IN AREA
   VWP DATA WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.

   FARTHER N...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FLARED UP OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL
   MD. THIS HAS BEEN COINCIDENT WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 60S SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES JUST W OF CHESAPEAKE BAY PER 17Z ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH
   DOWNSTREAM TEMPERATURES INTO SERN PA AND NJ REMAIN COOL...THEY ARE
   WARMING RAPIDLY AND SUGGEST THAT A CORRIDOR OF NARROW SURFACE-BASED
   INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP INTO AT LEAST SRN NJ.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 02/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39557666 39747631 40067567 40347429 40057391 39307439
               36577639 36497734 36747754 38087702 39557666 

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