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Mesoscale Discussion 146 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NJ AND PORTIONS OF DELMARVA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 24...26...
VALID 211907Z - 212000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 24...26...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...RISKS FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE INCREASINGLY
LIMITED IN SPACE/TIME. ONCE LEADING PORTION OF QLCS EXITS THE
COAST...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BECOME NEGLIGIBLE.
DISCUSSION...NRN PORTION OF QLCS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC APPEARS TO
HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND WEAKENED IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY OVER THE
PAST HOUR. THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOA 60 DEG F
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE QLCS...LIMITED TO THE E
BY ADVECTION OF COOL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM THE SHELF WATERS
NEAR THE NJ/DE COAST AND TO THE N WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH CNTRL NJ. AN EMBEDDED FLARE-UP OF
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS HOUR GIVEN PRESENCE OF
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...BUT OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 20Z.
..GRAMS.. 02/21/2014
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...
LAT...LON 40037517 40267492 40407405 40067401 37187583 37487584
38387541 39187525 40037517
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