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Mesoscale Discussion 147
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0147
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1210 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 221810Z - 222015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED MULTICELL CLUSTERS FORMING ALONG A SLOW-MOVING
   COLD FRONT AND SEA BREEZES MAY POSE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED STRONG
   WINDS AND HAIL. EXPECTED MARGINAL INTENSITY OF SEVERE HAZARDS WILL
   PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SLOW-MOVING AND WEAKENING
   COLD FRONT FROM NEAR TITUSVILLE TO ORLANDO TO THE NRN TAMPA BAY
   METRO AREA. SHOWERS HAVE DEEPENED INTO TSTMS DURING THE PAST HOUR
   ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND CONFLUENCE BANDS TO THE SW ACROSS CNTRL FL.
   CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING AMIDST NEAR 70 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS IS
   LIKELY SUPPORTING MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500
   J/KG. HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE ANEMIC LOW-LEVEL WIND
   PROFILES SAMPLED IN MLB/TBW VWP DATA AND MODEST HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES. THESE FACTORS SHOULD SERVE TO RESTRAIN UPDRAFT ROTATION AS
   WELL AS HAIL SIZE. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 20-30 KT...MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS WILL DOMINATE AND BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS
   AND GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE HAIL.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 02/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   28618055 27388021 27218091 27298151 27528175 28048156
               28448133 28538120 28618055 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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