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Mesoscale Discussion 150
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0150
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0743 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO NRN FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 231343Z - 231545Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A MODEST THREAT FOR HAIL AND
   GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A LARGE CLUSTER ALONG THE GULF
   COAST FROM SRN LA THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE. A FEW SEMI-ORGANIZED
   STRUCTURES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS MCS INCLUDING STORMS WITH
   MID-LEVEL ROTATION. ACTIVITY WAS INITIATED AS ELEVATED CONVECTION
   EARLIER THIS MORNING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
   DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN GULF INTO NRN FL.
   NWD DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED AS THE WARM
   FRONT ADVANCES AND AS POCKETS OF DIABATIC WARMING COMMENCE. STORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AS THE LEADING COLD POOL
   INTERCEPTS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE SURFACE LAYER. WHILE WINDS FROM
   THE SFC THROUGH 3 KM ARE RELATIVELY MODEST...DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR UP
   TO 40 KT WILL PROMOTE SEMI-ORGANIZED STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...THE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES
   WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE
   THREAT.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 02/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   28958179 29298285 29748425 30088445 30378347 29558154
               28958179 

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