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Mesoscale Discussion 153
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0153
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0525 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX...LA...FAR SRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 252325Z - 260200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
   STORMS THIS EVENING. WHILE AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR STORM OR TWO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SVR ACTIVITY IS
   FORECAST TO REMAIN TOO LOW FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...WITH GRADUAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING
   MODESTLY RICH RETURN MOISTURE...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
   IMPLY AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION WITHIN A BROAD SWATH FROM PARTS OF
   CNTRL TX EWD INTO THE SABINE VALLEY. AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION WILL
   CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE
   SWD ADVANCE OF A REINFORCING SURGE OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR. THIS
   WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS NERN TX INTO NRN LA AND FAR SRN
   AR -- I.E. ALONG THE TRAJECTORY OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE CURRENTLY
   CROSSING NWRN TX PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT LEAST MODERATE DEEP
   SHEAR MAY YIELD ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT CONVECTION. HAIL CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME
   SAMPLED BY 12Z RAOBS N OF A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM THE
   TX BIG BEND TO THE UPPER TX COAST. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE WITH MORE SFC-BASED CONVECTION FARTHER S. WHILE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATLY
   MITIGATED BY /1/ WEAK DEEP ASCENT.../2/ WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW PER VWP
   DATA...AND /3/ THE CONVECTION-UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE REINFORCING
   COLD SURGE.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 02/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28829548 28539747 29959795 32289584 33129414 33049189
               31729158 30079289 28829548 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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