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Mesoscale Discussion 155
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1052 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NW AZ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 010452Z - 010615Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH LINE SEGMENTS
   ACROSS NW AZ AND MORE DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS W CENTRAL AZ THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR A
   WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...NARROW THUNDERSTORM LINE SEGMENTS HAVE CROSSED THE CO
   RIVER INTO NW AZ ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...WITH MORE DISCRETE
   CELLS FARTHER S INTO W CENTRAL AZ AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THE
   CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AS
   WELL AS LARGER-SCALE ASCENT PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH PIVOTING
   EWD OVER SRN CA.  A MARGINALLY BUOYANT /SBCAPE OF 100-500 J PER KG/
   ENVIRONMENT EXISTS IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTIVE
   BANDS/FRONT...AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z FGZ/VEF SOUNDINGS...AND BY
   SHORT-TERM RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS W/NW AZ.  THOUGH BUOYANCY
   IS WEAK...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS
   AND SUPERCELLS OVER THE AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 50-60 KT WITHIN 2
   KM OF THE GROUND.  THUS...ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH MORE PERSISTENT/STRONGER STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS...PRIOR TO THE STORMS TRAVERSING THE NARROW UNSTABLE WARM
   SECTOR.

   ..THOMPSON/DARROW.. 03/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

   LAT...LON   35471238 34721233 34051262 33771322 33811377 34671385
               35531408 36051431 36491441 36881422 36991365 36881295
               35471238 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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