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Mesoscale Discussion 156
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0233 PM CST SAT MAR 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AZ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 012033Z - 012200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST AZ
   /NE OF YUM/ INTO CENTRAL AZ /INVOF AND N-NE OF PHX/ THIS AFTERNOON
   TO THE EARLY EVENING.  ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS /ONE OR TWO
   LOCALLY APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 50 KT/ AND HAIL APPROACHING 1 INCH
   IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE.  WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
   THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS...AND THUS PRECLUDES
   THE NEED FOR A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A FEW
   STORMS INVOF THE PHX METRO AREA AND MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OVER
   SOUTHWEST AZ /NRN-NERN YUMA COUNTY/.  THE LEAD ACTIVITY...CURRENTLY
   LOCATED TO THE NE-E OF PHX...APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A LEAD IMPULSE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. 
   WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-55 KT IS SUPPORTING ORGANIZATION...
   WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE EAST OF PHX SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
   TEND TO WEAKEN.  MEANWHILE...THE RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT IN NERN
   YUMA COUNTY IS LOCATED WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   PER SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND BENEATH INCREASING DEEP LAYER
   ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CENTRAL/SRN CA SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 
   STRONGER SURFACE HEATING OVER THE WRN HALF OF AZ THIS AFTERNOON
   WITHIN A DRY SLOT AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL STEEPEN
   LAPSE RATES.  THESE FACTORS WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   FROM SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z 4 KM WRF-NMM/WRF-NSSL AND
   18Z HRRR.  DEEP SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING
   STRONG-SEVERE...BUT GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE
   COVERAGE OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY.

   ..PETERS/MEAD.. 03/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   33401417 34051325 34711227 34691164 34171119 33751134
               33181207 32931253 32511335 32771394 33401417 

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