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Mesoscale Discussion 157
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0855 PM CST SAT MAR 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...NERN KS

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 020255Z - 020900Z

   SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES IS EXPECTED
   WITHIN A NARROW ZONE FROM CNTRL KS NEWD INTO NRN MO. PRECIPITATION
   TYPE IS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATELY BE SNOWFALL ACROSS NRN MO /WHERE
   RATES WILL APPROACH 1 INCH PER HR/...WHILE MIXED P-TYPES OF SLEET
   AND/OR SNOW MAY BECOME MORE COMMON WITH SWWD EXTENT.

   DISCUSSION...SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR IS
   ONGOING INVOF A ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMIZED IN THE 1-2 KM AGL
   LAYER ACROSS CNTRL KS INTO NRN MO. 00Z TOP SOUNDING SAMPLED A STOUT
   WARM NOSE /3 C AT AROUND 2 KM AGL/ AND A RELATIVELY DRIER LAYER OF
   AIR ATOP A SHALLOW COLD DOME. AS THIS LAYER SATURATES...A NARROW N-S
   TRANSITION ZONE FROM SLEET TO SNOW WILL LIKELY EXIST GIVEN A VERY
   SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE WARM NOSE
   BECOMES LESS PRONOUNCED WITH NEWD EXTENT /I.E. INTO NRN MO/...WHERE
   P-TYPE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINATELY SNOWFALL.

   PRIMARY UPPER WAVE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE W INTO EARLY SUN
   MORNING...WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT LIKELY TO BE SUSTAINED BY
   PERSISTENT AND QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTOGENETIC ZONE ACROSS KS/NRN MO.
   HOWEVER...SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION RATES MAY
   OCCUR GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL
   ELEVATED BUOYANCY. CONSENSUS OF HIGH-RESOLUTION AND ENSEMBLE
   GUIDANCE INDICATES SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HR WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE 05-09Z TIME PERIOD FROM NEAR
   MANHATTAN/TOPEKA ENEWD ACROSS THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA.

   ..ROGERS.. 03/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39469321 38959454 38479612 38299747 38359801 38499827
               38829824 39369700 40079522 40449431 40389337 40029280
               39469321 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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