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Mesoscale Discussion 158
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0532 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN MO...SRN IL...SRN INDIANA...SRN
   OH...NRN KY

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 021132Z - 021730Z

   SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
   ENEWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL
   ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...PARCELS LIFTED ALONG AN EXTENSIVE 25-40-KT LLJ
   EMANATING FROM THE SRN PLAINS /PER VWP DATA/ ARE REACHING THEIR
   LFC/S OVER SRN/ERN MO WHERE LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A RECENT
   BLOSSOMING OF WIDESPREAD ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
   ROOTED ABOVE A SHALLOW COLD DOME THAT CONTINUES TO OOZE SWD ACROSS
   THE OHIO VALLEY...AND RECENT SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE 32F ISOTHERM
   INVOF THE OHIO RIVER. SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD S OF
   THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO MODEST COLD
   ADVECTION BENEATH THE PERSISTENT ASCENT FOCUSED BETWEEN THE 285K AND
   300K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. AND...AS THE LLJ CONTINUES TO BREED AMPLE
   NEWD-DIRECTED FLUXES OF MOISTURE WITH UPSTREAM PW OF 0.75-1 INCH PER
   GPS DATA...THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS
   THE OHIO VALLEY AND YIELD MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

   PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SLEET WILL BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS NRN
   PARTS OF THE MCD AREA AND ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE
   CORES...WITH FREEZING RAIN MORE LIKELY SOUTH. HOWEVER...BOTH SLEET
   AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE MCD AREA GIVEN
   PARTIAL/COMPLETE MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS IN A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED
   WARM LAYER. LIQUID-EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.10-0.30 INCH PER HOUR WILL
   BE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD TRANSLATE TO SLEET ACCUMULATION RATES
   LOCALLY/BRIEFLY REACHING ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR. AS
   SUCH...SUBSTANTIAL ICING COULD ENSUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
   INTERSTATE 70. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND WILL ACCOMPANY
   THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION RATES.

   ..COHEN.. 03/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
   SGF...

   LAT...LON   37188946 37019122 37219328 37879349 38349254 39508777
               39858389 39718202 39318184 38668243 37978486 37188946 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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