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Mesoscale Discussion 160
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0160
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TX TO SWRN-CENTRAL OK

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 021728Z - 022230Z

   SUMMARY...A BAND OF CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED SLEET/SNOW SHOWERS WITH
   EMBEDDED TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST
   TX TOWARD 18Z INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ENEWD
   INTO SWRN OK THIS AFTERNOON.  THE AREA OF GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
   THIS WINTER WEATHER HAZARD IS GENERALLY 35 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A
   LINE FROM 35 SE CVS TO 35 WNW OKC.  ADDITIONAL ONGOING ELEVATED
   TSTMS OVER SWRN OK SHOULD REACH CENTRAL OK /NEAR OKC METRO/ BETWEEN
   19-20Z SUPPORTING ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES OF SNOW AND SLEET.

   DISCUSSION...AN ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS SPREAD SWD ACROSS THE TX HIGH
   PLAINS AND MUCH OF OK WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.  PRONOUNCED MID
   LEVEL COOLING EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF THE ERN NM SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING OF 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WITH NWD
   AND NEWD EXTENT INTO WRN/SRN OK.  STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
   SPREADING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF W TX AND TX PANHANDLE INTO
   WRN/CENTRAL OK ATTENDANT TO DPVA WITH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
   RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION.  THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS
   OF THE HRRR /11-15Z/ SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
   INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY
   18-19Z...AND SPREADING ENEWD.  A LEADING AREA OF ONGOING/SUSTAINED
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN OK TO INVOF CDS MAY BE AFFECTED NOW BY
   INCREASING UVVS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THIS ACTIVITY
   SHOULD TRACK ENEWD POTENTIALLY REACHING CENTRAL OK /IN VICINITY AND
   JUST WEST OF OKC/ BETWEEN 19-20Z.

   ..PETERS.. 03/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35779926 35719778 35309759 34849827 34170035 33920114
               33740173 33700214 33650278 33950291 34280281 34650255
               34880153 35230040 35639978 35779926 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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