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Mesoscale Discussion 165
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0165
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0855 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...NWRN MS...SWRN AND MIDDLE TN

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 030255Z - 030730Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN /OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH SLEET IN CONVECTIVE
   ELEMENTS/ WILL DEVELOP SWD INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION
   RATES OF 0.10-0.25 IN/HR EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST AMIDST
   AN INCREASING AREAL EXTENT OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING.
   THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR
   BELT DOWNSTREAM OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OK. THE
   SURFACE WET-BULB FREEZING LINE AT 02Z EXTENDED FROM NEAR BNA TO MEM
   TO LIT. THIS LINE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SWD IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL CAA AND SLIGHT BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS AS A SUBTLE
   SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE NERN LA/W-CNTRL MS BORDER SHIFTS NEWD. A
   PRONOUNCED ABOVE-FREEZING WARM NOSE BELOW 700 MB SAMPLED IN 00Z
   BNA/SHV RAOBS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE
   DOMINANT PTYPE. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH ABUNDANT
   LIGHTNING SHOULD SUPPORT MIXING WITH SLEET AT TIMES. HEAVIER
   FREEZING RAIN WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MON MORNING AS
   THE DRY SLOT INVOF ARKLATEX SHIFTS EWD.

   ..GRAMS.. 03/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34919142 35528998 36008859 36338658 36428597 36128594
               35758681 34938862 33559101 33519202 33779228 34269220
               34919142 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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