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Mesoscale Discussion 170
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0170
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0923 PM CST MON MAR 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SE TX

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 040323Z - 040830Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL EXPAND SPATIALLY THROUGH LATE
   EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING ACROSS S-CNTRL AND SE TX. RATES OF
   0.05-0.1 INCH/HR WILL BE COMMON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
   POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

   DISCUSSION...SWATH OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE SRN HILL COUNTRY
   EWD ALONG I-10 TO JUST W OF HOU APPEARS TO HAVE INITIATED IN
   RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE OVER THE CENTRAL TX COAST /AS OF
   03Z/...AND STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME ABOVE 2.5 KM AGL PRECEDING A
   STRONGER VORT MAX APPROACHING THE BIG BEND. THIS IS OCCURRING MUCH
   EARLIER THAN A MAJORITY OF 12Z/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
   FORECAST...WITH EXCEPTION TO THE 12Z WRF-NSSL AND WRF-NMM
   RUNS...WHICH APPEAR TO HAVE A SOMEWHAT REASONABLE DEPICTION OF
   ONGOING ACTIVITY BUT ARE STILL SLOW WITH RESPECT TO OBSERVATIONS. 

   SFC OBS INDICATE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING
   WHERE PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING CURRENTLY...WITH SFC FREEZING LINE
   ANALYZED FROM NEAR TPL SEWD TO 20 N HOU AS OF 03Z. COMBINATION OF
   WET-BULB COOLING /VIA ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO
   RELATIVELY DRIER SUB-CLOUD LAYER/...AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL CAA OUT OF
   THE N/NE...SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING OVER
   THE NEXT 2-3 HRS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR
   CONTEMPORANEOUSLY WITH A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT AS
   THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVES OUT OF THE BIG BEND...AND
   FACILITATES AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HRS. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
   FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED NEAR/N OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM
   THE SRN HILL COUNTRY TOWARDS HOU.

   ..ROGERS.. 03/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29709448 29579566 29579705 29739802 29929861 30399854
               30689786 30819750 30899668 30909601 30779531 30599468
               30439424 30149397 29869402 29709448 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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