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Mesoscale Discussion 171
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0171
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0948 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE KEYS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 061548Z - 061715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
   OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE
   17-18Z TIME FRAME...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AHEAD
   OF IT...ACROSS ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...DURING THE EARLY TO MID
   AFTERNOON.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
   WATCH...WHICH PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS AS LEAST THE SOUTHERN
   PENINSULA.

   DISCUSSION...IN ADVANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL
   CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
   REGION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL FORECAST OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT A
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM
   THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
   FLORIDA BY 20-21Z.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE CLUSTER OF
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH COINCIDES WITH A BELT OF 30-50 KT
   SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW.

   IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG SHEAR...HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND
   RAINFALL BLOWING OFF/ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
   FLORIDA PENINSULA...CONTRIBUTING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
   SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.  BUT THE CORE OF STRONGER
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELDS IS FORECAST TO NOSE INLAND
   ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR.

   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE MIAMI
   METRO...AND THE KEYS...DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE MORE MODEST
   ...BUT SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION PRIOR TO THE
   ARRIVAL OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND CONVECTIVE
   LINE IS MORE CERTAIN.

   EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO
   OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA MID DAY
   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES.  HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT
   SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS
   ACTIVITY...ALONG ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...BUT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   STILL APPEARS WEAK ACROSS THIS AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 03/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

   LAT...LON   27608233 28708123 28978074 27987969 25897946 24488042
               24718143 26188209 26758226 27608233 

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