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Mesoscale Discussion 173
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0173
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0704 PM CST THU MAR 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SC...WRN NC AND SCNTRL VA

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 070104Z - 070500Z

   SUMMARY...A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
   PARTS OF WRN SC...WRN AND NRN NC AND SCNTRL VA. FREEZING RATES OF
   AROUND .05 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING IN
   LOCATIONS WHERE FREEZING RAIN OCCURS.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
   OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED DRY SLOT
   NOSING INTO ERN GA AND WRN SC. UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE IN THE ERN
   FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ENHANCING LIFT IN A BROAD
   CORRIDOR FROM THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE
   RESULTING SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
   WRN AND CNTRL CAROLINAS...MOVING SLOWLY NWD INTO SRN VA LATE THIS
   EVENING.

   AT THE SFC...TEMPS ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
   APPALACHIAN MTNS FROM NEAR GREENVILLE SC NEWD TO SOUTH OF LYNCHBURG
   VA. THE 00Z SOUNDING AT GREENSBORO NC SHOWS AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER NEAR
   AND JUST ABOVE 850 MB WITH A SUBFREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER ABOVE ABOUT
   500 FEET AGL. THE EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE SFC WHERE A SHARP INVERSION
   EXISTS AND TEMPS ARE STILL JUST ABOVE 32 F. THIS SOUNDING SUGGESTS
   THAT ANY POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE BRIEF WITH SLEET AND
   SNOW THE PREFERRED PRECIPITATION TYPE AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.


   FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE 00Z SOUNDING AT PEACHTREE CITY GA SHOWS A
   WARM NOSE NEAR 850 MB EXTENDING UP TO 750 MB. THIS WARM LAYER LIKELY
   EXTENDS NNEWD INTO WRN SC AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NWD INTO WRN NC
   LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
   RAIN IN THE 03Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS COOL TO
   BELOW 32 F IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL COOLING AND WET-BULBING. FREEZING
   RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR. FREEZING
   RAIN MAY BE MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 03/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34048240 34318293 34728295 35268224 36088091 36697984
               37287892 37517833 37377785 37097767 36637777 35967855
               35377947 34498108 34048240 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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