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Mesoscale Discussion 177
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0177
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0731 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY...FAR NERN OH/NWRN PA

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 121231Z - 121700Z

   SUMMARY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD LARGELY AVERAGE AROUND 1
   IN/HR...POTENTIALLY EXISTING FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN
   NY.

   DISCUSSION...12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 990 MB CYCLONE NEAR KCVG
   WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO FAR SRN PA. THIS
   CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH
   MIDDAY...AHEAD OF A PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING
   THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. PRECIPITATION HAS EVOLVED INTO TWO DISTINCT
   BANDS...ONE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WAA REGION ACROSS THE UPPER OH
   VALLEY AND THE OTHER NEAR AND N OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE. THE LATTER
   BAND HAS YIELDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS LOWER MI/NERN
   IND/NWRN OH WITH OBSERVED RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR...EXCEEDING 2 IN/HR
   WITHIN EARLIER THUNDERSNOW.

   12Z BUF RAOB DEPICTED A SUB-FREEZING THERMAL PROFILE...NEARLY
   ISOTHERMAL BELOW 700 MB. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INITIAL MODERATE SNOW
   JUST N OF A MIXED PRECIP CORRIDOR IN WRN NY WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR
   REGION. SEVERAL HOURS OF ENHANCED RATES MAY PERSIST AS THE BROADER
   SWATH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SPREADS E ACROSS THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES. LESS CONDUCIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR LIGHTNING
   SHOULD TEMPER EXTREME RATES...BUT A LONG DURATION OF 1 IN/HR RATES
   APPEARS PROBABLE.

   ..GRAMS.. 03/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

   LAT...LON   43727617 43537578 43057578 42647632 42227827 41907969
               41448090 41258176 41458208 42757913 43327916 43727617 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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