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Mesoscale Discussion 188
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0420 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN LA / SRN MS / FAR SWRN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 160920Z - 161115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT --INCLUDING A NON-NEGLIGIBLE
   RISK FOR A TORNADO-- CONTINUES THRU 11Z.

   DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW UPPER 60S TEMPS AND MID
   60S DEWPOINTS OVER SRN MS AND SERN LA AHEAD OF AN ORGANIZING LINE
   LOCATED FROM 30 MI WNW PIB SWWD TO 15 MI ENE BTR.  DESPITE A VERY
   STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE AND ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
   SAMPLED BY KLIX AND KMOB VWP DATA /35-40 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR/...WEAK
   SURFACE TO 0.5 KM LAPSE RATES WITHIN A MOIST/MARGINALLY BUOYANT
   ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO LEND SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SEVERE
   THREAT AND TORNADO POTENTIAL.  RECENTLY OBSERVED SLIGHTLY VEERING
   FLOW AT KLIX AND ORGANIZED TRANSITORY/HYBRID CONVECTIVE MODE
   STRUCTURES LEND ADDITIONAL CONCERNS REGARDING A POSSIBLE HINDRANCE
   TO A MORE APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT.  NONETHELESS...IT APPEARS
   SUFFICIENT SUPPORTING INFLUENCES MAY WARRANT A WATCH.  THESE INCLUDE
   THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE...ALONG WITH SOME AIRMASS
   DESTABILIZATION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE AND S OF A NWD
   ADVANCING MARITIME WARM FRONT WHERE BACKED SURFACE FLOW IS LOCATED.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 03/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31678988 31918833 30888790 30388859 30599092 31678988 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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