ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 161251 SPC MCD 161251 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-161415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0191 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL / MIDDLE FL PANHANDLE / EXTREME SWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 161251Z - 161415Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS INITIALLY OVER SWRN AL AND MOVING INTO THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE FL PANHANDLE WILL MOVE INTO SERN AL AND THE MIDDLE FL PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE MORNING. THE THREAT FOR ISOLD DMGG WINDS AND A TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. DISCUSSION...12Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE FL PANHANDLE HAVE SHOWN A 2-3 DEG F RISE IN DEWPOINTS OVER THE PAST 2 HRS WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MIDDLE FL PANHANDLE COAST AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S INLAND OVER THE INTERIOR FL PANHANDLE AND SERN AL. DESPITE RATHER HOSTILE LAPSE RATES INITIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE FL PANHANDLE REGION /REF. 12Z TLH RAOB/...A SLOW BUT GRADUAL INFLUX OF LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND MODEST DIABATIC HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE THREAT FOR STORMS BY MID MORNING OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT AL/GA WILL BE AIDED IN PART BY A STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME COINCIDENT WITH A BELT OF 50 KT SLY H85 FLOW. STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL MORE THAN ADEQUATELY SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A CONVECTIVE LINE WITH INTERMITTENT EMBEDDED QLCS/SUPERCELL STRUCTURE AND CIRCULATIONS. AN ATTENDANT...ALBEIT CONDITIONAL...ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS AS THE SQUALL LINE FROM THE W MOVES INTO THE AREA OR ADDITIONAL ISOLD STORMS DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE. AS A RESULT...A TORNADO WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE CONSIDERED FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCH 130. ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 03/16/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 31538611 31338527 30848485 29768494 29988556 30438636 31538611 NNNN