ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180039 
SPC MCD 180039 
FLZ000-180215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0198
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN FLORIDA INTO THE LWR KEYS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 32...

VALID 180039Z - 180215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 32 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING REMAINS A BIT
UNCLEAR.  WHILE IT APPEARS GENERALLY LOW IN THE NEAR
TERM...POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT COULD STILL INCREASE BY
LATE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ALONG EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST AREAS
NEAR/NORTH OF MELBOURNE.

DISCUSSION...WITH CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OF AN INITIAL LINE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF ITS ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW LIKELY IS STALLING.  IT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL
COASTAL AREAS TO THE NORTH OF MELBOURNE...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL PENINSULA INTO GULF COASTAL AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF FORT MYERS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE WILL TAKE ON AN INCREASING NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING OF DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR...INCLUDING THE INTENSIFICATION OF A SOUTHERLY 850 MB
JET TO 50+ KT WITHIN A CORRIDOR ALONG THE STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME.  

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PENINSULA...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMITING CAPE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE A CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER APPROACHING 2 INCHES APPEARS TO EXIST.  HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
THAT THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION NEAR/NORTH OF MELBOURNE...WHERE
CONSIDERABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW BY
06Z...COULD PROVIDE THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL FOCUS AND FORCING FOR NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING. 

IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 03/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   25728268 26818208 27758138 28838142 29288123 29258070
            28187996 26638085 25018107 24668197 25728268 

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