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Mesoscale Discussion 199
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0199
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 180441Z - 180645Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN...BUT PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS.  IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT A NEW WATCH WILL BE
   NEEDED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER FLOW IS STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA
   AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME...AS
   MODELS SUGGEST A 90-100+ KT 500 MB SPEED MAXIMUM IS BEGINNING TO
   NOSE INLAND FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  VWP DATA FROM
   MELBOURNE INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS HAVE COINCIDENTALLY
   BECOME QUITE LARGE AND CLOCKWISE CURVED...WITH INTENSIFICATION OF
   SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 850 MB...AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW APPROACHING
   THE WEST CENTRAL GULF COAST.

   BEFORE NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT COMMENCES OFF THE EAST CENTRAL
   ATLANTIC COAST LATER TONIGHT...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY STILL APPEARS
   TO EXIST FOR VIGOROUS NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THE
   VERTICAL SHEAR...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR AT LEAST MARGINALLY
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.  AND IT
   DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS THREAT COULD INCREASE
   WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO NEAR REMNANT INTERSECTING SURFACE
   BOUNDARIES AROUND THE MELBOURNE AREA.  GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT
   ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS THEN POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF INTERIOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
   AN INLAND ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 03/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   28458192 29798090 28267991 27317993 26388013 26038068
               25818181 27288215 28458192 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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