ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 062324 
SPC MCD 062324 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-070130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0298
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI....SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 062324Z - 070130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. TORNADOES...A
FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
/LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT 23 UTC/ IS BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHWARD. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE AIRMASS IS
CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2000 J/KG...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 KTS...AND EFFECTIVE STORM-RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 200-300 M2/S2. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE INITIATION OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS /INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS/...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

..MARSH/THOMPSON.. 04/06/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30819187 31359105 31548866 31308701 30908609 30238561
            29618628 29108870 29289109 30279214 30819187 

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