Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 366
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 366 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0366
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0448 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 182148Z - 182315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR
   THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS CONVECTION
   SPREADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE
   ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS ARCING NWWD OVER NORTH FLORIDA...AND
   RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY IS EXHIBITING MORE OF A
   SEMI-DISCRETE MODE NW OF A MORE CONTIGUOUS LINE REACHING DAYTONA
   BEACH VICINITY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY
   HAVE TEMPERED DIURNAL BUOYANCY INCREASES. HOWEVER...A MOISTURE-RICH
   BOUNDARY LAYER -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S -- IS BOOSTING
   LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY AMIDST STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- E.G. 0-1-KM BULK
   SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KT PER JAX VWP DATA. AS SUCH...ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL
   MESOVORTICES WITH A COUPLE INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR.
   A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN PROXIMITY TO AN ENE/WSW-ORIENTED
   STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW-LEVEL SRH IS RELATIVELY ENHANCED.
   HOWEVER...THE LIMITED SPATIOTEMPORAL WINDOW OF THE SVR POTENTIAL
   PRECLUDES WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 04/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX...

   LAT...LON   30108303 30388242 30818149 29968127 28938073 28408073
               28428118 29038148 29628185 29938234 29938275 30108303 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: January 01, 1970
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities