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Mesoscale Discussion 375
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0375
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1018 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 210318Z - 210445Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH
   DIMINISHING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THEY DEVELOP EAST
   SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THROUGH 05-06Z.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF GENERALLY DISCRETE CONVECTIVE CELLS
   CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE CHILDRESS TX AREA.
    ALTHOUGH WDSS-II MESH DATA SUGGESTS STRONGER STORMS MAY STILL BE
   PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
   GENERALLY WEAKENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST
   EAST OF THE DIFFUSE DRYLINE DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING.

   CONSOLIDATION OF STRONGER CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWED BY THE LACK OF
   STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
   WITH WARM ADVECTION OR FOCUSED CONVERGENCE.  EVEN IF THIS DOES
   SLOWLY CONTINUE TO OCCUR...AHEAD OF A LOBE OF VORTICITY DIGGING INTO
   THE RED RIVER VALLEY /AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD
   CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MIGRATING EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
   REGION/...POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSTANTIVE COLD POOL
   APPEARS TO BE DECREASING.  THIS IN TURN APPEARS TO MINIMIZE THE
   THREAT FOR AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS
   ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
   METROPLEX BETWEEN NOW AND 05-06Z.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 04/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   33420047 34149958 34939933 34939825 34739750 33999735
               32859884 32910027 33420047 

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Page last modified: April 21, 2014
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