ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 212209 SPC MCD 212209 TXZ000-212345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0509 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85... VALID 212209Z - 212345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...MODEST CONVECTIVE SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL MAY STILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/ SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. DISCUSSION...THE DRYLINE APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS IS WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP...INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG HEATING...AND MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MODERATELY LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE. SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 35-40 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LATEST WDSS-II MESH DATA SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST ONGOING CELLS ARE PROBABLY PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE...AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING APPEARS WEAK...CLUSTERING OF STORMS WEST OF TEMPLE AND AUSTIN INTO THE JUNCTION AREA MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH THAT CONSOLIDATION OF COLD POOLS COULD BEGIN TO OCCUR AND SUPPORT THE UPSCALE GROWTH OF A MORE ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER. IF THIS OCCURS...IT APPEARS THAT THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS THROUGH THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 04/21/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30880045 30819957 30999886 31129844 31339810 31839756 32249745 32579682 32219619 31349693 30529734 29779790 29519883 30040025 30600064 30880045 NNNN