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Mesoscale Discussion 384
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0384
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0607 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE PA...CNTRL/SRN NJ...NRN MD...NRN DE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 222307Z - 230100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS ALONG
   A SEWD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MD AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE
   UPPER 60S TO LOWS 70 WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ABOVE 7 DEG PER KM
   NOTED IN RECENT MESOANALYSIS. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT 0-6 KM
   BULK SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MODEST
   TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR
   ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   AREA...ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
   PRODUCE OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT CONTINUES SEWD. SOME
   SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
   ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE
   NEED FOR A WW.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 04/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   40317640 40877511 40607446 40307422 39277508 38857606
               39027794 39417823 39687747 40317640 

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Page last modified: April 23, 2014
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