MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0386
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES TO WESTERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 231937Z - 232130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE
   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS
   WESTERN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES TO WESTERN OK. LARGE HAIL IS
   EXPECTED TO BE THE INITIAL/MOST PREVALENT SEVERE HAZARD. A WATCH
   WILL BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON /LIKELY PRIOR TO 21Z/.

   DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 995 MB ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CO
   AS OF 19Z. SOUTH OF THIS CYCLONE...AND IN THE WAKE OF
   EASTWARD-SPREADING MID-LEVEL CONVECTION/TSTMS...A NORTH-SOUTH
   EXTENDING DRY LINE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHARPEN/MIX SLOWLY
   EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING SOUTHWEST KS AND
   THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
   MODEST...BUT 50S/SOME LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
   BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE THROUGH
   EARLY EVENING.

   ADDITIONAL MIXING /ESPECIALLY AS SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S
   F/ AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE NEAR THE DRY LINE...ALONG WITH THE
   INCREASING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
   CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
   ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
   LATE AFTERNOON. AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
   12Z WRF-NSSL...INDICATE THAT SUCH DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BY AROUND
   21Z-22Z WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AND TX/OK PANHANDLES.

   A SPECIAL 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM AMARILLO SAMPLED AN
   INCREASINGLY MIXED/UNINHIBITED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEPENING
   LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 1700 J/KG MUCAPE. LIKELY TIED
   TO THE UPSTREAM FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A
   STRENGTHENING/SLIGHT BACKING OF WINDS BETWEEN 3-7 KM AGL WAS NOTED
   SINCE THIS MORNING /12Z/. 

   AS VERTICAL SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
   INCREASE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
   HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
   DOMINANT SCENARIO. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME TORNADO
   THREAT WILL EXIST AS WELL...MAINLY INTO EARLY EVENING AS LCL/S LOWER
   AND LOW-LEVEL SRH BEGINS TO INCREASE.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34250156 35910140 38210105 38219945 37629913 36449893
               34939896 33569948 33500044 34250156