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Mesoscale Discussion 390
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0390
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0654 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF W/NW TX AND ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND
   SOUTHWEST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88...

   VALID 232354Z - 240130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST
   INTO THE  EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TX NWD THROUGH WRN OK...WITH A
   SEPARATE AREA IN SOUTHWEST KS.  STORMS OVER WRN NORTH TX AND SWD
   INTO W TX MAY TEND TO REMAIN MORE DISCRETE...WHILE ACTIVITY IN WRN
   OK CONTINUES TO EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER.  AS STORMS SPREAD
   EWD...ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OK AND NORTH CENTRAL TX MAY
   NEED TO BE ADDED TO THIS WW...WHILE THE LACK OF NEW DEVELOPMENT IN
   THE WRN PART OF THIS WATCH SUGGESTS COUNTIES CAN BE CANCELLED WITH
   WWD EXTENT.

   DISCUSSION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR
   OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING ALONG AND EAST OF A NEARLY
   STATIONARY DRY LINE FROM WRN/SWRN KS SWD THROUGH WRN OK AND ERN TX
   PANHANDLE INTO WEST TX.  THE DRY LINE WAS ANALYZED FROM WEST CENTRAL
   KS SWD TO JUST W OF LBL TO 35 E AMA TO 40 WSW CDS...AND THEN SEWD TO
   40 WNW ABI BEFORE TRAILING SWWD INTO SOUTHWEST TX.  THE AVAILABLE
   INSTABILITY...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
   35-45 KT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH CAPABILITY OF
   PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

   TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE STORMS THAT HAVE
   MOVED INTO WRN OK HAD MERGED...WHILE STORMS IN WRN NORTH TX FROM
   HARDEMAN AND BAYLOR COUNTIES TO ERN STONEWALL AND HASKELL COUNTIES
   REMAINED MORE DISCRETE.  THE LATTER ACTIVITY WAS SOMEWHAT MORE
   REMOVED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
   THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  HOWEVER...30-60 METER 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS
   ARE EXPECTED INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS.  THIS
   ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE FORCING AND STRENGTHENING OF A SLY LLJ INTO
   WRN OK AND ADJACENT SRN KS SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS THEY
   ADVANCE EWD INTO THE MID-LATE EVENING.  THUS...EVENTUAL UPSCALE
   GROWTH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS IN WRN NORTH TX...AS WELL...INTO
   A SEPARATE CLUSTER.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL OF THE
   HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.  A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR STORMS TO REMAIN
   SEVERE INTO CENTRAL OK IS THE EXISTENCE OF A CAP AND MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY PER THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING.

   ..PETERS.. 04/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...GLD...LUB...AMA...
   MAF...

   LAT...LON   32040104 32820094 34110101 36970108 38260113 38259834
               37009818 36189803 35059806 34029803 33499792 33349890
               32099915 32040104 

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