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Mesoscale Discussion 393
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0393
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MO...FAR SERN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 241742Z - 241915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS THEY ADVANCE
   EWD ACROSS MO AND FAR SERN KS...POTENTIALLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND ORGANIZE IN
   ADVANCE OF A STRONG PV MAX CROSSING OK/KS. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF AN
   ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS SLY/SWLY SFC
   WINDS SUPPORT THE INFLUX OF MIDDLE/UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS. STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY UPSTREAM 12Z OUN/LMN RAOB AND 12Z
   SGF RAOB WILL SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND SVR HAIL...ESPECIALLY
   GIVEN 40-50 KT OF MID-LEVEL SWLYS SAMPLED BY EAX/SGF VWP DATA. DMGG
   WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME OF INCREASING CONCERN IF CONVECTION CAN
   SUSTAIN A QUASI-LINEAR MODE ORGANIZATION.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   36749420 37469492 38309449 38989337 38909204 38029116
               36829182 36579309 36749420 

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Page last modified: April 24, 2014
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