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Mesoscale Discussion 395
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0395
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN AR...NRN LA...NWRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 241858Z - 242100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES AS UPPER 50S/LOWER
   60S DEWPOINTS ARE SPREADING NWD IN THE WAKE OF WARM FRONT ANALYZED
   APPROXIMATELY FROM NRN AR TO N-CNTRL MS. WITH A DEARTH OF ANTECEDENT
   CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING...AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION IN MOST AREAS HAS
   SUPPORTED MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1500 J/KG...AIDED BY 7-8 C/KM
   H7-H5 LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY 12Z RAOBS. EVEN WHERE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
   HAS BEEN MAINTAINED BENEATH A CAPPED/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER
   ACROSS THE ARKLATEX...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
   APPROACHING MID-LEVEL PV MAX PER MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY HAS
   RESULTED IN DEEPENING CONVECTION. CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY 40-60 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE LA/AR BORDER
   OVER THE SRN FRINGES OF THE STRONGER DCVA WHERE STRONGER BUOYANCY
   EXISTS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL/DEEP SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE SHV VWP WILL
   SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CONVECTION...INCLUDING
   POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH SVR WIND/HAIL AND TORNADOES. ALSO...STRONG
   CONVECTION RELATED TO WRM ADVECTION IN CNTRL AR MAY FURTHER
   INTENSIFY TOWARD THE MS RIVER AS INFLOW MOISTENS AMIDST RELATIVELY
   BACKED SFC WINDS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. DMGG WINDS...SVR
   HAIL...AND SOME TORNADO RISK MAY ENSUE.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33549382 34119195 35079101 35009020 33899011 33249046
               32699114 32349289 32769398 33549382 

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Page last modified: April 24, 2014
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