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Mesoscale Discussion 403
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0403
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0150 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL VA EWD TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 251850Z - 252115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LOW RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
   THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT/ANTICIPATED TRAJECTORY OF A COMPACT
   MID-LEVEL VORT MAX EMERGING OVER THE VA/NC PIEDMONT SUGGESTS THAT
   POLEWARD LOW-LEVEL MASS FLUXES CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MORE ROBUST
   BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN RELEGATED TO TORNADO WATCH 91. FARTHER
   NORTH...LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL SUPPORT THE INFLUX OF MORE MODEST
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- E.G. LOW/MID 50S SFC DEWPOINTS. WEAK
   BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION MAY ENSUE...THOUGH THIS IS BEING
   STUNTED BY A MID/HIGH-LEVEL CANOPY CAST DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING
   CONVECTION ENTERING THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. REGARDLESS...WITH
   STRONG DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT/SHEAR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
   DURING THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...STRONG STORMS WITH
   GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. A DMGG WIND
   GUST OR POSSIBLY A TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...
   PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS JUST NORTH OF TORNADO WATCH 91 FROM CNTRL
   VA TO E-CNTRL VA.

   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 04/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37417842 37917885 38407836 38647738 38337600 37767527
               37337577 37417842 

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Page last modified: April 25, 2014
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