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Mesoscale Discussion 404
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0404
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NC AND SRN VA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 91...

   VALID 251922Z - 252045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 91 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SRN VIRGINIA.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS REVELS A WWD-ADVANCING AGGREGATE
   OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM HALIFAX TO
   CUMBERLAND COUNTY. AS ONGOING DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
   EVOLVING OVER THE PIEDMONT SPREAD E INTO THE MOISTER/MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER
   RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS TO BOOST EFFECTIVE SRH TO AROUND 200
   M2/S2. LOW-LEVEL HELICITY WILL FURTHER INCREASE AS STRONGER DEEP
   FLOW ARRIVES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ACCOMPANYING PV MAX AND
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESPONDS. TRENDS IN RAX VWP DATA ALREADY REFLECT THIS
   RESPONSE. AS SUCH...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE IN THE
   NEAR-TERM...PARTICULARLY IN ERN NC AND SERN VA. A STRONG TORNADO
   RISK WILL EXIST.

   ..COHEN.. 04/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34898083 37217952 37227518 34897662 34898083 

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Page last modified: April 25, 2014
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