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Mesoscale Discussion 406
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0406
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0629 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC AND SERN VA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 91...

   VALID 252329Z - 260030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 91 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES WITHIN THE ERN HALF OF
   WATCH 91 FROM ERN NC INTO SERN VA...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE
   STORMS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR NWD INTO SERN VA.  MEANWHILE...STORMS
   CONSOLIDATING INTO A LINE NEAR THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ENHANCE THE
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS FROM W-E ACROSS ERN NC AND FAR SERN VA.

   TIMING OF THIS LINE OF STORMS SUGGESTS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   OVER FAR ERN NC AND FAR SERN VA WILL NOT END UNTIL AFTER
   02-03Z...SUCH THAT A LOCAL WFO TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF THIS WATCH MAY
   BE NEEDED FROM THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE OUTER BANKS.

   DISCUSSION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE PARAMETER SPACE ACROSS
   ERN NC INTO SERN VA REMAINED SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITH
   ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  LOW LEVEL SRH RANGING FROM 300-400+ M2/S2 FROM
   AKQ TO MHX...RESPECTIVELY...CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE TORNADIC
   POTENTIAL WITH ANY OF THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL DISCRETE STORMS. 
   MEANWHILE...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED DURING THE LAST HOUR
   /SINCE 2225Z/ A LINE OF STORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
   A COLD FRONT WHICH TRAILED SSWWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR
   RZZ /ROANOKE RAPIDS NC/.  40-45 KT WLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 0.5-1 KM
   AGL PER RAH WSR-88D WITHIN THE SRN HALF OF THE COMPACT SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN VA WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS ALONG THIS LINE OF STORMS.  BOWING STRUCTURES...SIMILAR TO THE
   ONE EXTENDING FROM BERTIE COUNTY TO NRN PITT COUNTY...WILL BE LIKELY
   AS THIS LINE OF STORMS ADVANCES EWD AT 40-45 KT...REACHING THE COAST
   BETWEEN 0130-03Z.

   ..PETERS.. 04/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34937872 35917806 36757770 37397773 37947706 37657663
               37187633 36887593 36197571 35667544 35207547 34977602
               34597657 34427759 34537792 34597839 34937872 

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Page last modified: April 26, 2014
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