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Mesoscale Discussion 409
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0409
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW TEXAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 262049Z - 262315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE EXISTS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIATION OF
   SUSTAINED...DEEP...DIURNAL CONVECTION. WHILE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPMENT...THE
   NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...FOCI FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS INCLUDE /1/ A DRYLINE ANALYZED ALONG THE TX
   PANHANDLE/OK BORDER SWWD TO THE TX BIG BEND.../2/ A NNE/SSW-ORIENTED
   CONFLUENCE AXIS/SECONDARY DRYLINE TO ITS E WITH OVERLYING ACCAS
   PLUME...AND /3/ OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS OVER NRN COAHUILA MEXICO.
   VIS IMAGERY INDICATES BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN
   ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF LOWER 90S SFC
   TEMPERATURES TO THE W OF THE SECONDARY DRYLINE. DESPITE TRANSLUCENT
   CIRRUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SUCH TEMPERATURES MAY BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR ANTECEDENT CAPPING TO BE BREACHED.

   HOWEVER...WITH SFC WINDS TEMPORALLY BACKING TO THE W OF THE WRN
   DRYLINE AS AN ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO 2-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF
   2.0-3.5 MB ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...DRYLINE CONVERGENCE IS
   WEAKENING. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE RETURN HAS ONLY BEEN MODEST...WITH
   SFC DEWPOINTS HAVING MIXED OUT INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60F YIELDING
   1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE ON THE MOISTER SIDE OF THE WRN DRYLINE.
   FURTHERMORE...WITH STRONGER DEEP ASCENT REMOVED WELL TO THE W OF THE
   REGION...CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION
   IS LOW. REGARDLESS...A CONDITIONAL SVR WIND/HAIL RISK WOULD EXIST
   OWING TO 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR COUPLED WITH STEEP
   TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. WITH 30-35F SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT
   SPREADS...STORMS WILL BE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT AND POSSESS NEAR-NIL
   TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH AROUND 00Z.

   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 04/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32459862 29969982 29280083 29520162 30040208 31260180
               32080076 32819999 33729986 35149978 35519892 35299798
               34239812 32459862 

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Page last modified: April 26, 2014
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