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Mesoscale Discussion 411
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN NORTH DAKOTA AND
   SWRN MINNESOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 270658Z - 270900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL PROBABLY
   EXISTS IN STRONGEST STORMS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
   THROUGH DAYBREAK.  BUT THIS THREAT MAY BE AT ITS PEAK NOW THROUGH
   09-10Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

   DISCUSSION...A RAPID INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS WELL
   UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS LIKELY IS IN RESPONSE TO
   DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN A
   BROAD ZONE OF STEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT...TO THE NORTH OF A SURFACE
   WARM FRONT...BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  STRONGEST
   STORMS...WHICH LATEST WDSS-II MESH SUGGEST MAY BE PRODUCING
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...APPEAR GENERALLY FOCUSED ON THE LEADING
   EDGE OF WARMER AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
   AIR...NOW ADVECTING NORTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.  THIS
   IS EXPECTED TO REACH ROUGHLY A FAITH...MOBRIDGE...ABERDEEN SD AND
   REDWOOD FALLS MN LINE BY 10-12Z.  AS IT ADVANCES NORTHWARD ABOVE A
   PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER COOL...STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER...CAPE FOR
   MOST UNSTABLE ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS SEEMS LIKELY TO WEAKEN WITH
   ANY SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 04/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43519611 43869825 44240023 43990293 45940279 46719891
               45239436 44039430 43519611 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2014
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