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Mesoscale Discussion 412
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0412
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0509 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS...WRN AND CNTRL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271009Z - 271145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES EXIST WITH
   DEVELOPING CONVECTION THROUGH 13-15Z.  IT IS NOT YET CERTAIN THAT A
   WATCH IS NEEDED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAS BEEN OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE
   DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. 
   THIS HAS LED TO SOME RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...BUT THIS
   INITIAL ACTIVITY IS QUICKLY BEING UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT...WITH
   STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH PERHAPS STILL LAGGING TO THE
   WEST.  

   AS THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH
   CENTRAL AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED FORCING LIKELY
   WILL CATCH UP TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR JUST
   HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR.  LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SEEMS TO GENERALLY
   INDICATE THAT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AT LEAST CLOSER TO MIDDAY
   ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS. 
   HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOISTENING THAT HAS OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL
   OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT...THE INITIATION OF
   SUBSTANTIVE CONVECTIVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY
   OUT OF THE QUESTION AS IT CROSSES THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THROUGH
   13-15Z.  SUFFICIENT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT AN
   EVOLVING CONVECTIVE LINE WITH AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL
   AND WIND GUSTS IN THE PRESENCE OF 50+ KT DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW.

   OTHERWISE...CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
   ADVECTION DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
   EASTERN KANSAS HAS SHOWN RECENT INTENSIFICATION.  THE EXTENT OF THE
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS A BIT
   UNCLEAR...WITH ACTIVITY PROBABLY STILL ROOTED ABOVE AT LEAST A WEAK
   NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER...AND ITS NOT CLEAR WHETHER CURRENT
   INTENSITIES WILL PERSIST BEYOND DAYBREAK.  BUT...UNTIL THEN...THERE
   WILL BE AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE HAIL.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 04/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   35079930 36459928 37569938 38709920 39479810 39929655
               39519479 38619483 37489611 35389661 33649777 33699882
               35079930 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2014
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