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Mesoscale Discussion 418
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0418
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 94...

   VALID 271627Z - 271800Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 94
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS WW 94...BUT SOME
   REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT. LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
   STORMS IN THIS AREA.

   DISCUSSION...EARLIER TSTM ACTIVITY HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED ACROSS
   NERN TX...AS IT MOVED INTO A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FURTHER REMOVED FROM
   STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...SOME ATTEMPTS AT
   REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAVE BEEN NOTED NEAR THE RED
   RIVER...WITH SOME INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CU FURTHER SOUTH.
   STRONG HEATING IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 66-70
   DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG...WITH EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEEP
   CONVECTION INITIATE. INITIATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO CAPPING
   CONCERNS AMID RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...BUT A CONDITIONAL
   RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE
   COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..DEAN.. 04/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   31069807 31609788 32239760 32859716 33249705 33589674
               33719593 33739553 33649535 33319491 32779488 32349495
               32029512 31779531 31389571 31029616 30859641 30689660
               30579684 30539709 30669737 31069807 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2014
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