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Mesoscale Discussion 419
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0419
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1154 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND PARTS OF ERN NEB...N-CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271654Z - 271830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW
   TORNADOES. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE BY 17-18Z

   DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD ANVIL CIRRUS CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF
   CENTRAL NEBRASKA NORTH OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH HAS MOVED INTO SWRN
   NEB...WHICH HAS LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING THUS FAR. HOWEVER...SOME
   CLEARING HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE LAST HOUR...WITH TSTMS RECENTLY
   DEVELOPING NEAR LXN AND SLN. A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SBCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG AND STRONG
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR THAT IS LARGELY NORMAL TO THE BOUNDARY. WHILE BACKED
   MIDLEVEL WINDS IN THIS AREA ARE CREATING LESS THAN IDEAL
   HODOGRAPHS...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND HIGH AMBIENT SURFACE VORTICITY. OTHERWISE...SOME
   HAIL EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED
   CELL.

   ..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 04/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   40750016 40960049 41270080 41560082 42290038 42779978
               42609860 42329771 42189722 41849687 41299683 40699684
               40209691 38679673 38529780 38789792 39329834 39869878
               40249906 40459929 40519960 40750016 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2014
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